Introduction
The University of Manchester has a fully-funded PhD studentship available (UK/EU students only) in multi-state models for patients on renal replacement therapy.
Existing clinical prediction models are generally based on a single outcome or decision point. For example, the future risk of cardiovascular events or the death during a surgical procedure. However, in many situations we are faced with a complex sequence of events and decisions that we would like to predict multiple outcomes and hence optimize treatment. One such example is renal replacement therapy. Patients with kidney failure are faced with many treatment options (including transplant and dialysis) and may move between different treatments over time. This can be characterized by a multi-state model. The project aims to progress statistical methodology for clinical prediction in patients on renal replacement therapy with multi-state models, with the ultimate goal of informing optimal treatment.
Scholarship Value
This fully-funded EPSRC 4-year project provides full support for tuition fees, conference/travel allowance and annual minimum tax-free stipend at UK Research Council rates (£14, 296 from 2016/17). Due to commence October 2016, the project is open to UK/EU nationals only due to the nature of the funding.
Study Focus
The successful candidate will be trained in a wide range of interdisciplinary research techniques including biostatistical modelling, healthcare treatments and epidemiology. There will also be opportunities for external training in prognostic modelling at Oxford University.
Objectives of the Project
- Review literature of CPMs and multi-state modelling to identify the potential to apply CPMs in a multi-state framework.
- Develop a multi-state model to describe the flows of patients through treatments in RRT, using data from the UK Renal Registry, which contains data on all patients in the UK on RRT.
- Use the developed multi-state model to define aetiological drivers of outcomes in patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT)
- Use the developed multi-state model, combined with CPM methodology, to derive a ‘decision aid’ for optimising treatment for RRT patients.
- Externally validate the developed decision aid/CPM on international renal registries (e.g. Australia/New Zealand, Sweden).
Expect outcomes/impact of the project
- Provide a unique insight into the current ‘journey’ of RRT patients through multi-state modelling.
- Provide a tool which can be used to optimise dynamic treatment regimens for these complex patients to improve prognosis.
- Statistical methodology, particularly around the link between predictive modelling and decision support, that will see wider impact in other disease and application areas.
- Applicants should hold (or expect to obtain) a minimum upper-second honours degree (or equivalent) in a related area to the proposed research.
- A Masters degree and/or previous research experience in related techniques would be beneficial.
Please direct applications in the following format to Dr Matthew Sperrin: (matthew.sperrin@manchester.ac.uk):
- Academic CV
- Official academic transcripts
- Contact details for two suitable referees
- A personal statement (750 words maximum) outlining your suitability for the study, what you hope to achieve from the PhD and your research experience to date.
- 18th March, 2016
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